Legislative Races

As we roll through the summer the legislative races are heating up.

Monmouth Republicans running for state office are in an interesting position. While the voters might be unhappy with local republicans it also looks like there is some dissatisfaction with the ruling party in Trenton. The challenge for them is to distance themselves from the local issues and become the alternatives to dems in Trenton. Interesting note; the County Democrat website does not even mention legislative candidates.

The breakdown by district is as follows.

13th;

This district should be an easy winner.

Amy Handlin has strong reformer credentials and her running mate Sam Thompson is popular in his home county of Middlesex. Amy has not showcased her liberal tendencies and in light of events since her election her criticisms of previously popular politicians is no longer much of an issue. She is gaining in popularity in her district because she has been doing a good job.

The challenger Pat Walsh is better and has more name recognition then the typical democrat candidate. She seems savvy and intelligent. However it will not be enough in this round. While she is a 4 term Middletown Board of Ed. member, that position in that town might be a minus. Plus she has two lead weights for running mates Her Assembly running mate is Bob Brown. Who? enough said. Well not really we also need to say that he could not even get his petition right.

Senator Joe Kyrillos is a popular politician and a good fundraiser. The Democrat Leonard Inzirillo appears incompetent next to Joe. He also has had his own "filing issues"

12th;

Probably the most interesting race. First we Pit Republican Assemblywomen Jennifer Beck against Democratic Senator Ellen Karcher. Beck is a tireless and experienced campaigner. While she is not a favorite of conservatives neither is Karcher. Beck is also extremely personable. Much more so then Karcher. Plus Karcher while a savvy politician who has bucked her own party when she needs to has ticked off a fair number of Dems, especially the trial lawyers.

Declan O'Scanlon came within a whisker of beating Assemblyman Panter last go around. While Panter is another savvy politician who bucks his own party when he has to, the last election was to close to give him a pass. I think he is viewed as opportunistic and there will be a slight trend against Democrats at the state level.

Caroline Casagrande the other republican candidate is young, energetic and well connected but not well known.

Then again neither is the other Democrat candidate Amy Mallet.

I would call this district too close to call except for two things MONEY and local issues.

I have not checked elec reports but I hear the dems have a lot and we do not.

Additionally two local issues may have an impact on this race.

The first (if the insipid blog "Da Truth Squad" is to be believed) is that Caroline Casagrande is being blackened by local politics in Manalapan where she is the Township attorney.

The second issue appears to be a little complex but the short version is that Panter has introduced legislation concerning the issue of who educates children of non military families who reside on Earle Naval Base. Tinton Falls Borough Council (while Tinton Falls has a non partisan form of government I believe the current council consists of all Republicans) unanimously passed a resolution supporting Panter's legislation. It is also reported that Michael Laffey the Republican Chairman of Tinton Falls and a member of the Board of Education testified in support of the Bill. Colts Neck opposes the Bill as has Jennifer Beck. While there is no evidence that any republicans are supporting Panter , only this legislation, one has to wonder what impact this will have on the many independent voters who reside in Tinton Falls.

In a close election either one of these local issues could be a deciding factor

In this race give an edge to the Democrats but that edge could be overcome if the State party will pump substantial resources into the race or the candidates themselves can raise substantial funds. Let us hope that is the case.

11th;

I say another win for Republicans.

Assemblyman Sean Kean running for Senate is well known and well liked in his district. I hear he is supported by the teachers union as was his predecessor Joe Palia. In my opinion he needs to concentrate more on important legislation and less on fluff but in all honesty from an electability stand point it seems to be working for him. His latest legislation on tougher penalties for "illegal guns" is a good move and good legislation.

No question he is a savvy politician and well connected. The small amount of backlash he will get from Steve Coredemus partisans will have little effect.

His running mate (for Assembly) Mary Pat Angelini is a nice counterbalance to Kean. A hard worker with strong conservative credentials. She should be a strong candidate. Dave Ribble in my mind is an unknown quantity but from what I have seen is a capable speaker.

Kean's opponent Villipiano has a well known name and is a real veteran but my feeling is it's a little late for a come back and the public mood does not favor Democrats at the state level right now. He has a shot but I would not give good odds.

John P. Napolitani will run well in Asbury Park and do well with the teachers (being a teacher and living in Asbury) but that is not where the Democrats needed help. The other Democratic Assembly candidate John J. Pimat does not even show up on a google search.

For what it is worth that is my take on the legislative races.