Local Races Rebuttal
Highly respected Monmouth County Republican Blogging pioneer Art Gallagher of More Monmouth Musings recently stated on his Blog.
Is this correct? I beg to differ.
Wall - a split in the party. Republicans won just not the Republicans the leadership backed. This indicates a problem with the leadership. I am with the insurgents on this one.
Middletown- split but my contacts there say that Scarfenbergers running mate was very poor in public appearances. Also this race demonstrates the power of name recognition. The two winners had the most. If Tom Hall (a real class act) had run for reelection he would have won handily.
Holmdel- The loosing Republican had run against the party and with Terrance Wall in the previous municipal election. That could of been the cause of his defeat.
Hazlet- I do not know enough about to comment on. Maybe someone else out there can.
Keyport- Was all Democratic and we gained a seat. That does not show a Democratic trend.
Oceanport - They beat an incumbent Mayor and did not loose any seats. The Mayoral winner Mike Mahon worked hard and is smart, sincere and personable . I hope the party sees more of him.
Red Bank - We held our own. Given the demographics in Red Bank that is a good thing.
I think Pat Menna will make it even harder for Republicans to win because he has a much more palatable style then mean McKenna did. Hate his politics but Menna is a gentleman.
Sea Bright - In a very close race in a small town an obviously popular candidate won. This swung on personality and local issues not party trends.
Marlboro - Republicans lost because as many bloggers have pointed out the head of the ticket imploded. He was beat by a former Republican who was born and raised in Marlboro and was helped by disaffected Republicans.
Add in a win in Highlands and an impressive win by an embattled Republican in Manalapn and wins for new Republicans in Eatontown.
If you logically analyze the data there is no trend. I must respectfully disagree with the gentleman from Highlands.
I think what we do see is a tendency for voters at the local level to disregard party affiliation and vote on local issues. Not necessarily a bad thing for the towns or the party's.
Highly respected Monmouth County Republican Blogging pioneer Art Gallagher of More Monmouth Musings recently stated on his Blog.
On the municipal level, the county is trending Democratic:Wall: Independent
republicans win, a repudiation of the local and county GOP organizations.
Splits: Middletown, Holmdel, Hazlet, Keyport, Oceanport, Spring Lake, Red Bank,
Sea Bright. Marlboro: A huge Democratic victory with a major assist from local
Republicans
Is this correct? I beg to differ.
Wall - a split in the party. Republicans won just not the Republicans the leadership backed. This indicates a problem with the leadership. I am with the insurgents on this one.
Middletown- split but my contacts there say that Scarfenbergers running mate was very poor in public appearances. Also this race demonstrates the power of name recognition. The two winners had the most. If Tom Hall (a real class act) had run for reelection he would have won handily.
Holmdel- The loosing Republican had run against the party and with Terrance Wall in the previous municipal election. That could of been the cause of his defeat.
Hazlet- I do not know enough about to comment on. Maybe someone else out there can.
Keyport- Was all Democratic and we gained a seat. That does not show a Democratic trend.
Oceanport - They beat an incumbent Mayor and did not loose any seats. The Mayoral winner Mike Mahon worked hard and is smart, sincere and personable . I hope the party sees more of him.
Red Bank - We held our own. Given the demographics in Red Bank that is a good thing.
I think Pat Menna will make it even harder for Republicans to win because he has a much more palatable style then mean McKenna did. Hate his politics but Menna is a gentleman.
Sea Bright - In a very close race in a small town an obviously popular candidate won. This swung on personality and local issues not party trends.
Marlboro - Republicans lost because as many bloggers have pointed out the head of the ticket imploded. He was beat by a former Republican who was born and raised in Marlboro and was helped by disaffected Republicans.
Add in a win in Highlands and an impressive win by an embattled Republican in Manalapn and wins for new Republicans in Eatontown.
If you logically analyze the data there is no trend. I must respectfully disagree with the gentleman from Highlands.
I think what we do see is a tendency for voters at the local level to disregard party affiliation and vote on local issues. Not necessarily a bad thing for the towns or the party's.
posted by Teddy Roosevelt at
8:08 AM
8 Comments:
Your points are valid TR.
But if you take last year's municipal gains into account by the Dems, combined with two consecutive defeats at the Freeholder level, the trend is not good.
Wall is solidly Republican, as is the county, philosophically. I'm with the insurgents there too.
Given what happened in Wall and Middletown, especially, those two towns importance to the county and their municipal chairs' influence in the county party, I think the results should serve as a wake up call to the county party leadership.
Sadly, I don't think the wake up call will be heard.
I think the county is starting to trend independaent.
TR: With all due respect your analysis of Marlboro is all worng and Art was correct (to a point). I stated this to Art's site and I will again. As a Marlboro republican, here it is: This has nothing to do with Hornik's prior political affiliations. He was and is a Reform Democratic Party founder with Steve Sukel, Barry Denkensohn and others. More on them later...
First, Kleinberg killed our party. He alientated many of us and disrespected all of us. He believed and acted as if he was larger than the party. So when the opportunity arose to cut off his head it was taken internally. The Republican club split in Marlboro. That group went to Adam for support. He was approached by Republican officers Shital Rajan and Mike Fishman, both asked for his help. He did not give it. They asked him to disavow and distance the Party from Kleinberg. Adam did not. Had the County chair backed the split Republicans, the disenchanted rank and file republicans and independents that trend to republican candidates would have only voted across the lines for Hornik and the council. Instead the numbers showed in Marlboro that Dems and independents voted straight down the Dem line. Republicans voted down the GOP line and crossed over to Hornik and the dems for Mayor and Council. Those independents that linked Cantor to Kleinberg because the County refused to disavow Kleinberg cost us his seat.
How do I know this, look at the Marlboro numbers. Every Dem candidate won Marlboro except Amod Choudary for the Clerk office. Marlboro has effectively returned to a Dem stronghold with their superior Democratic organization, superior candidates (Hornik, LaRocca and Marder)and that group's municipal chair (Steve Sukel) and their leadership(insiders like Denkensohn). They played the political game to a "T". Hornik and Sukel approached the disenchanted Republicans and brought them inside. Those two courted the independent voters like never seen in Marlboro. The Indian and Asian communities supported them overwhelmingly.
They swept EVERY district 28-0.Even historic Republican districts went to the Dems.
Hornik and Sukel were perfect and the election was a blowout. They won 60%-40%. Remember, this new Democratic group is ONLY 2 1/2 years old. They swept out thier old and brought in what could have been OUR new. This election was an A+ embarrssment to Republicans.
However, a Puharic endorsement of the breakaway Republican Club, and disavowel of Kleinberg would have had those independents sitting on the fence vote for Jeff Cantor rather than just stay on the Dem line. Why, because Marlboro independents linked Jeff to the "Kleinberg team". Break the link and Jeff Cantor wins hands down in his own hometown!
Therefore, Adam blew this opportunity. That was a political move Adam blew. As for every other office, the Republican campaigns countywide were very strong and stayed on message. We crushed Karcher on taxes and no matter what Cody spent, the message Jen Beck sent stuck! The Karcher destruction brought down Panter and Mallet too. They got sucked up in her whirlpool and that is why we swept those seats destroying the dems. But as for Adam, he played the Marlboro hand wrong. If Adam supported the Marlboro Republican splitters, cut off Kleinberg publicly then Jeff Cantor, our best hope to defeat D'Amico is our Freeholder! Jeff Cantor lost by 366 votes, almost the exact same as Jeff's loss in Marlboro. Coincidence? No, missed opportunity? YES!!!
Gallagher needs a wake-up call: (1) he doens't have a clue; and (2) he is not relevant.
first Anonymous. Very interesting, however I do not think that disagrees with my premise. The the defeat in Marlboro was not the result of a demographic swing but based on local issues and personalities.
Second Anonymous I can almost garauntee Art is smarter then you.
As the first anonymous, I agree the Marlboro election revolved around local persoanlities, however 2 short points; 1) The dem organization may very well have converted a large number of Asian and Indian Independents thier way. We will see when Hornik makes critical appointments from those ethic groups (Hornik and Sukel are too smart not to appoint an Asian and Indian to key posts, crucial to these voting blocs which could have been our recruits); and 2)I truly beleive that Adam's failure to recognize the situation in Marlboro allowed the Kleinberg mess to drag down our candidates county wide. Not one of our candidates won Marlboro save Claire and she only won by less that 50 votes. Name me one other town where Dems won EVERY district ( and in Marlboro they were no close, nearly 2-1)
As for your blog keep up the excellent work.
Arguing about my relevance is silly, and won't influence any future elections. If you don't like me, don't read me. Most influence I have has been granted by people who don't like what I have to say, but read it everyday.
Weather the trend in Monmouth is
Democratic, as I see it, or Independent, as TR sees it, the numbers say the trend is not towards Republicans. The GOP leadership can ignore those numbers or justify them at their own peril.
Republicans winning at the top of the ticket year after year tells me that our county wants Republican leadership. The post bid rig trend from the county level down tells me that the county voters do not trust the local organization.
The County GOP leadership's strategy for unity has been and will likely continue to be to purge disenters. That has worked internally since after the 2006 conventions, but has not translated to victory at the ballot box. Nor will it ever.
Excellent commentary Gentleman.
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